BUBBLE IN 2025

Bubble ahead-
Every stock investor is observing their portfolio go red-hot, but the question that remains is it is the market or the fundamentals of stocks that are dragging down!
Is there a bubble being formed? or has it formed?

INTRODUCTION TO THE GLOBAL SCENARIO- BUBBLE AHEAD

Well, this is the same discussion I am going to share here which I have discussed with my investors in Bridgenile capitals, two things matter a lot for each and every person to observe in their portfolio, that is the external and internal factors!

THE EXTERNAL FACTOR-

when we look into the macro factor of what actually caused the impact of the global slowdown, starting from America to India, we all know that during the period pre and post-pandemic after the 2008 meltdown, all banks printed a lot more money ( which they call cuts in repo rate which you can see here), but as normal thinking, we tend to think that why does Fed rate cuts impact our country or across the globe? Well, the answer is simple: the US holds the reserve currency.

If you have read my previous blogs there I have explained in deep detail what is rate cut is and how reserve currency impacts it, coming to the point we can also see that after the continuous imbalances in monetary currency, the central banks of each country have printed just more than is required because that is what all central banks can do and have been doing so for past 5-7 decades.

First, let us make this pretty clear that the government has only two options to proceed further
1- To print more money, ( via rate cuts)
2- To increase the taxation.
Due to these factors, we see a ton of debt getting piled up which is around 450 trillion dollars globally, and someone someday has to pay it back.
If you observe from that scenario then we are heading towards a global depression since the reset button has to be clicked.

When there is a trade deficit and irrational activities within the nation and among the nations that is a time where External and internal conflict arises, these conflicts generate a boom(hike in repo rates) and bust( cuts in repo rate) for the short term but still, the government has to work on the above two conditions.

We all know that it is due to globalization, that the production and consumption of one country affect another, due to which the common stocks get impacted in the market which we call a macro effect.

so in order to summarise this if your portfolio ( consisting of securities) is dragging down then it can be due to the global macro factor and if this is the case then stay rest assured because you are reaching the position where you are allowed to invest more in markets and buy more securities under intrinsic value, which will bring in a lifetime generational wealth for you!

THE INTERNAL FACTOR-BUBBLE

Now this is a real problem when you face the natural drag down of your portfolio due the the inherited stocks that you just accompany being very low quality and financially degrading in their own position, this might bring in real problems or shall I say irreplaceable problems!

If the external factor is dragging your stocks down then it’s just about time and if it’s the intrinsic valuation of the stock or any security that is just degrading it downwards which is the internal factor then you really have a problem.

If you have done your valuation perfectly that is the exact time you just grow with your stocks or the security that you are holding, that is the reason purchasing any security by the reference of any person no matter if they are SEBI registered or registered by any other government platforms is completely injurious to your financial portfolio.

CONCLUSION

if you are an investor and if you bought the business, not the stock price, then you will surely make profits in the long run, i would like to see this bubble article after 2025.

I hope this helps a lot and if you have any queries regarding investing please email me at invsubhojit@bridgenile.com

One thought on “THE BUBBLE 2025!”
  1. Thanks on your marvelous posting! I really enjoyed reading it, you could be a great author.I will be sure to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back sometime soon. I want to encourage you continue your great work, have a nice afternoon!

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