THE UPCOMING ECONOMY 2024-2025!

INTRODUCTION TO THE WORLD VIEW OF THE ECONOMY

previously, before 1980 investors especially Foreign institutional investors(FII) and domestic institutional investors(DII) used to take big positions in stocks or bonds based on the company’s fundamental or asset matriculation, and today’s date if we focus we get that the FII and DII deeply focused on the fiscal monetary policy taken by the central banks of each nation to invest or dilute their funds.

if we observe carefully the history of this world economy and the global market capital of the world which is approximately 111 trillion US dollars at present, which is a massive amount to calculate since it has increased exuberantly from 3 trillion us dollars in 1980 to 111 trillion us dollars in date of this blog.

But what we do fail to calculate is that the global market capital or what we can also call the Gross Domestic Product of the global (GDP) is 111 trillion but the debt has also significantly increased with the GDP from 34 trillion us dollars in 1980 to 315 trillion us dollars a present.

so for example we understand that if a person has earned Rs.100 and the debt is around Rs.304, the basic thing is that the debt has to be paid back someday and the moment the debt has not been able to paid back you need to face the consequences.

UNDERSTANDING THE G.D.P FACTOR OF NATIONS-

We have to understand that the world economy would be viewed as one large economy, which is driven by trust, interconnection, transaction of money, and a huge pile of debts. this also presents that no country’s GDP can be isolated, each country is somehow connected to the reserve currency(the US) and one another.

these four components basically add up to become the G.D.P of any country –

• THE CONSUMER SPENDING OR PERSONAL CONSUMPTION- (C)
• INVESTMENTS (I)
• NET EXPORTS (E)
• GOVERNMENT SPENDING (G)

The mathematical formula to calculate the gross domestic Product (GDP) = c + I + e + g, as mentioned above we observe that these four components interplay the role of the forming of GDP of any country.

to be honest, even you can calculate the GDP of your nation just by calculating these simple factors. where you will observe that different countries will rely on any one part majorly, which also gives you an insight into what the government does to drive the economy and jobs.

Then when you read more history about countries the more you will understand why this factor came along and what your prime position for investment must be that’s how you will be able to conceive your thinking further.

We might see a nation’s GDP growing because that’s what is there in the news and other social media platforms, but with the rise in GDP what they just don’t show you is the Debt which is rising three times the GDP via rate cuts, and money printing from the Central banks of your nation.

so whenever you try to invest or make a macro decision these basic fundamentals should be a very important part of your research.

IMPACT AND CONCLUSION TO UPCOMING VIEW OF THE ECONOMY

The story starts with the country that holds the reserve currency because that country holds the world power in currency and any decision taken by that nation is to be followed by other nations either immediately or with time, because if they don’t that will impact their currency and lower there market capitalization.

for example, in India, the RBI declared that they would not cut rates even after the FED in America did for 0.50%, what was the result of this monetary policy?

To date, India just faced a 10% correction, because the FII moved their money out of India and invested in other countries that followed the position of reserve currency.

It is more important to understand that importance should be given to the country that holds the reserve currency as compared to your nation, what I mean is that the country that holds the reserve currency has more power to stop and start the world war, Natural gas, and crude oil prices than any other random nation, so as a result, if on today’s date The most important election was between TRUMP and BIDEN, reason is every single person from each country observed the consequences.

Well, this is how I believe the world order progresses.to understand what is about to happen in the future your duty is to go through the past just in order to resonate with the past and project it in the future.

FOR THIS TO PREDICT ONE SHOULD PROCEED WITH THE SUBJECT OF HISTORY!