WHAT IS THE NEXT MOVEMENT IN THE MARKET 2024?

INTRODUCTION

standing today well no one can predict which direction is the market going to swing if we observe the predictions then we see that the market has just failed to impress the majority, well it’s not the first time it has been done earlier, and it will continue to be the same forever.

The swings observed in the market just not in 2024 or any year are due to the phenomena of euphorism and depression.

THE INVESTING OSCILLATION –

In the field of investing oscillation is the only dependable feature of the investment world, since it oscillates from euphoria and depression.

there is a common saying that goes on in the market that the market swings between two emotions “GREED & FEAR” ” In other words people feel positive and expect good things to happen thats when greed takes place and keeps pushing the price upwards( since due to the greed factor everyone makes more investment) and makes the swing towards it extreme.

But at other times the expectations turn less good and fear takes over, rather than getting enthusiastic about making money they just get fear of losing money. this prevents them from buying further and lets the market participants shrink from buying which enables them to sell and push the prices down.

that is when people come into fear mode and bring the bear market down and the prices just keep shooting down vigorously and every single small-phased investor is willing to sell and make the downward swing to its extreme.

remembering such swings which are caused by fear and greed tend to move the price of stocks or assets toward their extreme which is rarely possible for any random person to predict early on.

THE CYCLE OF MARKETS-

The first phase of the market cycle always starts with the story of lower interest rates( cuts in rEPO rates) so with the lower interest rates the stock market starts pushing upwards towards greed and gives rise to the upward cycle.

now in phase two – once the interest rates have been lowered, this factor will give rise to a new process called “inflation” As a result the markets will start sloping down.

phase three starts when the market starts turning down but due to lower interest rates it gets resisted from the lower side and generates a sluggish economy (an economy in which the Country’s GDP and other factors move very slowly across the globe) and that will try to get the market move upwards via printing money or via raising taxes.

which brings us to phase four, which I call the momentum phase, after printing a lot more money the market moves into an overheated economy and to control all the factors the central bank (which in India is the RBI ) prints money and reimposes the higher interest rates, which lowers the rate of inflation and tries to stable out the economy.

and by doing so the market shows high volatility and hits higher highs until the next turnover or until the beginning of phase one again, and this is how the cyclical position of the market repeats again and again.

CONCLUSION

so if you are an investor or want to understand or predict the markets then my single recommendation is that never try to predict the markets because there is a higher probability that the market rarely goes wrong and your analysis or prediction can be massively wrong if you try to predict the markets.

It definitely takes huge courage for any investor to say that the market is wrong, and also coming up with all these market cycles you still can be unknown about the circumstances, the reason being no one knows how much extreme the swings will be at their maximum.